{"id":12726,"date":"2026-05-09T05:06:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T05:06:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/09\/insider-betting-on-polymarket-html\/"},"modified":"2026-05-09T05:06:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T05:06:17","slug":"insider-betting-on-polymarket-html","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/09\/insider-betting-on-polymarket-html\/","title":{"rendered":"Insider Betting on Polymarket"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div>Insider Betting on Polymarket<\/div>\n<p> \t<BR><br \/>\n<BR><\/BR><br \/>\n    <!-- no image --><br \/>\n \t<BR><br \/>\n<BR><\/BR><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Insider trading is <a href=\"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/tech-policy\/2026\/04\/more-than-half-of-all-long-shot-bets-on-polymarket-pay-off\/\">rife<\/a> on Polymarket:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets\u2014\u00addefined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less\u2014\u00adon the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.<\/p>\n<p>That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It is absolutely insane that this is legal. We already know how insider betting warps sports. Insider betting warping politics\u2014and military actions\u2014is orders of magnitude worse.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> \t<BR><br \/>\n <BR><\/BR><br \/>\n    Bruce Schneier<br \/>\n \t<BR><br \/>\n<BR><\/BR><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.schneier.com\/blog\/archives\/2026\/05\/insider-betting-on-polymarket.html\">Go to bruce schneier<\/a><br \/>\n \t<BR><br \/>\n <BR><\/BR><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Insider Betting on Polymarket Insider trading is rife on Polymarket: Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets\u2014\u00addefined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less\u2014\u00adon the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,474,2454,1],"tags":[87],"class_list":["post-12726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bruce-schneier","category-gambling","category-insiders","category-uncategorized","tag-bruce-schneier"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12726"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12726\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/serisec.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}